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Impact of the development of the Gateway Pacific Terminal on the Whatcom County economy
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Impact of the development of the Gateway Pacific Terminal on the Whatcom County economy
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Title
Impact
of the
development
of the
Gateway
Pacific
Terminal
on the
Whatcom
County
economy
Publisher
Communitywise Bellingham
Date
2012
Summary
In
November
2011
,
Communitywise
Bellingham
retained
Public
Financial
Management
,
Inc
.
(PFM)
to
conduct
an
independent
review
of the
potential
economic
impacts
associated
with the
development
of the
Gateway
Pacific
Terminal
(GPT)
at
Cherry
Point
. A
prior
study
by
Martin
Associates
,
conducted
on
behalf
of the
developers
of
GPT
,
projected
the
economic
benefits
that would
result
from the
development
and
operation
of the
terminal
. That
study
and a
subsequent
third
party
review
of its
results
did
not
address
either
potential
costs
that
could
result
from the
development
and
operation
of
GPT
or the
degree
to
which
the
development
of
GPT
could
reduce
potential
benefits
from
other
sources
of
economic
development
or
job
growth
in
Whatcom
County
.
Our
analysis
suggests
that the
potential
for
cost
is
real
. To the
extent
that the
development
and
operation
of
GPT
would
lead
to an
increase
in
rail
traffic
in
Bellingham
and
other
parts
of
Whatcom
County
, there would be
costs
to
mitigate
the
impact
–
particularly
given
the
number
of
active
rail
crossings
in the
City
. The
impact
on
other
job
growth
and
economic
development
strategies
may
be
even
more
significant
. To the
extent
that
GPT’s
construction
and
operation
could
put
other
projected
or
planned
growth
at
risk
,
it
is
possible
that
even
if
all
of the
projected
employment
benefits
of
GPT
were
achieved
it
could
still
have a
net
negative
employment
impact
on
Whatcom
County’s
economy
. If the
development
and
operation
of
GPT
led
to the
loss
of
more
than
17
percent
of
projected
job
growth
in
Whatcom
County
between
2012
and
2021
, or
more
than
13
percent
in the
ten
year
period
after
construction
begins
, the
result
would be a
net
loss
in
employment
in the
County
.
Moreover
, the
planned
development
and
operation
of
GPT
could
pose
a
specific
risk
to
redevelopment
plans
for the
Bellingham
waterfront
.
State
and
local
agencies
have
committed
more
than
$40
million
to the
redevelopment
of the
former
Georgia
Pacific
site
in
downtown
Bellingham
. The
Port
of
Bellingham
projects
that
over
25-30
years
,
redevelopment
of the
site
could
produce
$1
billion
in
investment
–
including
a
net
increase
of
5,600
direct
jobs
alone
. To the
extent
that
development
and
operation
of
GPT
increases
rail
traffic
,
it
could
reduce
the
feasibility
of
redevelopment
and
projected
resulting
jobs
. The
risk
of
offsetting
reductions
in
projected
job
growth
is
largely
due
to
train
traffic
.
First
, the
operation
of
GPT
would
lead
to a
significant
increase
in
rail
traffic
through
Whatcom
County
–
especially
through
downtown
Bellingham
.
Phase
I
operation
would
add
five
trains
traveling
to
GPT
through
Bellingham
on a
daily
basis
.
Each
train
would be
between
7,000
and
8,500
feet
–
1.3
to
1.6
miles
-
in
length
.
Additional
traffic
is
likely
due
to the
return
of
rail
cars
from
GPT
.
Impacts
to
Bellingham
-
positive
and
negative
-
are
significant
for
Whatcom
County
due
to its
role
as the
economic
center
of the
County
.
Approximately
60
percent
of
all
employment
in the
County
is
in
Bellingham
;
Bellingham
businesses
generate
more
than
three-quarters
of
all
retail
sales
and
more
than
half
of
all
revenue
related
to
accommodation
and
food
services
; in
2010
,
more
than
half
of
all
residential
home
sales
occurred
in
Bellingham
; and,
despite
accounting
for
just
1.3
percent
of
total
land
in the
County
,
36
percent
of
total
assessed
county
property
value
was in
Bellingham
.
Additional
potential
risks
to
growth
beyond
baseline
projections
are
related
to
tourism
and the
in-migration
of
skilled
workers
and
entrepreneurs
to the
region’s
economy
.
Again
, these
risks
are
related
to
both
the
projected
increase
in
rail
traffic
and
stigma
associated
with the
transport
of
large
amounts
of
coal
through
Whatcom
County
. If the
development
of
GPT
proceeds
,
steps
can
be
taken
to
reduce
the
impact
of
additional
rail
traffic
through
re-routing
of
rail
traffic
or
new
overpasses
or
changes
to the
street
grid
. Those
steps
could
reduce
potential
risk
and
thereby
increase
the
likelihood
of
net
economic
benefits
for
Whatcom
County
and
Bellingham
.
Such
steps
,
however
,
come
at a
cost
that
-
to
date
-
no
party
has
assumed
. To the
extent
that those
costs
are
assumed
by the
public
,
it
would
reduce
the
net
fiscal
benefit
of the
GPT
development
to the
public
-
especially
if
local
governments
were
asked
to
bear
those
costs
. In
assessing
the
findings
of this
report
,
different
decision
makers
may
not
view
the
risks
imposed
by the
development
and
operation
of
GPT
in the
same
way
and
reach
dissimilar
,
yet
valid
conclusions
. The
purpose
of the
study
is
not to
recommend
a
specific
course
of
action
.
Instead
, the
purpose
is
to
provide
policymakers
-
and the
public
-
with
additional
information
about
the
potential
economic
impact
to
reach
a
better-informed
decision
. With that
aim
,
other
communities
along
the
rail
line
may
find
the
economic
analyses
and
risk-based
approach
in this
report
to be a
template
for
undertaking
their
own
review
of the
economic
impact
of
GPT
.
Subject
Marine terminals--Economic aspects--Washington (State)--Whatcom County
Land use, Urban--Economic aspects--Washington (State)--Whatcom County
Industries--Economic aspects--Washington (State)--Whatcom County
Railroads--Economic aspects--Washington (State)--Whatcom County
Organizations
Public
Financial
Management
,
Inc
.
Collection title
North
Corner
Documents
Collection
Related documents
http://www.communitywisebellingham.org/cwb-studies/
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application/pdf
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